The National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. update Thursday, August 29 has Hurricane Dorian forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane on Friday.

As of 5 a.m., Hurricane Dorian is centered about 150 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 425 miles east-southeast of the Southeast Bahamas. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph. On the forecast track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas Thursday and Friday and approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.

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Current maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

This weekend into early next week, Dorian is expected to bring rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (isolated 6 inches) in the central Bahamas and 4 to 8 inches (isolated 12 inches) in the northwest Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast United States. NHC warns this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

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The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwest Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. NHC advises that residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian’s center.

Meanwhile, Erin has been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone. At 5:00 a.m., the storm’s center was located about 225 miles east-northeast near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 71.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward motion are expected later Thursday, with this motion continuing through Friday.

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Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen a little on Friday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern Canada Friday night.

While it is too soon to tell what, if any, impact Dorian will have on the Outer Banks, this is a good time to make sure your storm preparation plan is in place. Check out our 2019 Disaster Preparedness Guide here for more information. For updates, check back here or hurricanes.gov.

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Keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Dorian

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